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Abstract Gelisols (permafrost‐affected soils in US Soil Taxonomy) are extensive in Alaska, currently occurring on ∼45% of the land area of the state. Gelisol taxonomic criteria rely on the presence of near‐surface (less than 2 m deep) permafrost, but ongoing climatic and environmental change has the potential to affect the presence of near‐surface permafrost across much of Alaska throughout the 21st century. In this study, we utilized scenarios of near‐surface permafrost loss and active layer deepening through the 21st century under low (SRES B1, RCP 4.5), mid‐ (SRES A1B), and high (SRES A2, RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, in conjunction with the statewide STATSGO soil map, to generate spatially explicit predictions of the susceptibility of Gelisols and Gelisol suborders to taxonomic change in Alaska. We find that 15%–53% of Alaskan Gelisols are susceptible to taxonomic change by mid‐century and that 41%–69% of Alaskan Gelisols are susceptible to taxonomic change by the end of the century. The extent of potential change varies between suborders and geographic regions, with Gelisols in Northern Alaska being the most resilient to taxonomic change and Western and Interior Alaskan Gelisols most susceptible to taxonomic change. The Orthel suborder is likely to be highly restricted by the late 21st century, while Histels and Tubels are more likely to be of greater extent. These results should be taken into consideration when designing initial survey and re‐mapping efforts in Alaska and suggest that Alaskan Gelisol taxa should be considered threatened soil taxa due to the proportional extent of likely loss. 

Abstract Landscape drying associated with permafrost thaw is expected to enhance microbial methane oxidation in arctic soils. Here we show that ice-rich, Yedoma permafrost deposits, comprising a disproportionately large fraction of pan-arctic soil carbon, present an alternate trajectory. Field and laboratory observations indicate that talik (perennially thawed soils in permafrost) development in unsaturated Yedoma uplands leads to unexpectedly large methane emissions (35–78 mg m⁻² d⁻¹summer, 150–180 mg m⁻² d⁻¹winter). Upland Yedoma talik emissions were nearly three times higher annually than northern-wetland emissions on an areal basis. Approximately 70% emissions occurred in winter, when surface-soil freezing abated methanotrophy, enhancing methane escape from the talik. Remote sensing and numerical modeling indicate the potential for widespread upland talik formation across the pan-arctic Yedoma domain during the 21^stand 22^ndcenturies. Contrary to current climate model predictions, these findings imply a positive and much larger permafrost-methane-climate feedback for upland Yedoma.